Cardiff City vs Burnley
Burnley scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 away · Cardiff City conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 65% · H2H 2 of 6 · Burnley: only games against sides at Cardiff City's level · Cardiff City: only games against sides at Burnley's level
Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What's at stake. Cardiff City are 18th on 15 points after 14 games, 2 points behind Bolton, level on points with Lincoln. A win would take them above Bolton. Burnley are 22nd on 10 points after 14 games, 4 points behind Charlton, 3 points clear of Derby.
Form. Cardiff City have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W D W. Burnley have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L L D.
The numbers. Cardiff City score 2.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Cardiff City average 14.9 shots (6.1 on target), 6.5 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. Burnley score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Burnley average 13.0 shots (4.1 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Cardiff City have won one, drawn four and lost five. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Cardiff City won one and Burnley won three. The last time they met, on 23 Sep 2025, it finished Cardiff City 2-1 Burnley: Cardiff City had 9 shots to 15, 53% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Cardiff City are the stronger side on form and the table, but the meetings favour Burnley.
The case against. Burnley's record still gives them 28% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. Cardiff City to win. An open game. Cardiff City are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Burnley. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 76% on the records (Cardiff City: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Burnley: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.11. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Cardiff City or Draw & Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Cardiff City or draw and both teams score (the signs point different ways); Cardiff City or Draw (1UP) (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Cardiff City 2-1 Burnley (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).