Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond. The referee is O. Reitala.
What's at stake. St. Truidense VV are 7th on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Monaco, level on points with HNK Hajduk Split. A win would take them above Monaco. SK Brann are 3rd on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with FC Lugano, level on points with Trabzonspor. A win would take them above FC Lugano.
Form. St. Truidense VV have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W. In this competition St. Truidense VV have gone W W. SK Brann have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L.
The numbers. St. Truidense VV score 1.8 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. St. Truidense VV average 16.7 shots (4.6 on target), 6.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 57% of the ball. SK Brann score 1.8 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. SK Brann average 12.5 shots (4.9 on target), 7.4 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 40% of the ball.
The case against. SK Brann's record still gives them 54% to win.
The read. St. Truidense VV or the draw. An open game. SK Brann are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SK Brann. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.09, 98% on the records (St. Truidense VV: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home; SK Brann: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 away). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.19. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Both Teams to Score - Yes (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: St. Truidense VV 2-1 SK Brann (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).