Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadions Skonto, Riga. The referee is V. Kopiyevsky.
What's at stake. Riga FC are 21st on 2 points after 2 games, level on points with Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 1 point clear of FK Crvena Zvezda. A win would take them above Egnatia Rrogozhinë. FK Jablonec are 24th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with CSKA Sofia, level on points with FC Midtjylland. A win would take them above CSKA Sofia.
Form. Riga FC have won five, drawn five and lost none of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W D. FK Jablonec have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L L.
The numbers. Riga FC score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Riga FC average 14.3 shots (6.4 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. FK Jablonec score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. FK Jablonec average 12.9 shots (5.4 on target), 5.3 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 40% of the ball.
The case against. FK Jablonec's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. Riga FC or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Riga FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Riga FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.41, 74% on the records (Riga FC: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10; FK Jablonec: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Riga FC 1-1 FK Jablonec (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).