Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Athína (Athens). The referee is M. Al-Hakim.
What's at stake. Panathinaikos are 1st on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with FC Lugano. PFC CSKA Sofia are 23rd on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with FK Crvena Zvezda, level on points with FK Jablonec. A win would take them above FK Crvena Zvezda.
Form. Panathinaikos have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. PFC CSKA Sofia have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W L. In this competition PFC CSKA Sofia have gone D L.
The numbers. Panathinaikos score 2.8 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Panathinaikos average 16.2 shots (5.5 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 57% of the ball. PFC CSKA Sofia score 2.3 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. PFC CSKA Sofia average 21.0 shots (7.2 on target), 6.6 corners and 3.3 cards a game, with 56% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 74% against the records' 50%.
The read. No firm call: Panathinaikos are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Panathinaikos the likelier winners; Panathinaikos are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Panathinaikos. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. Best bet: Panathinaikos or Draw at 1.09, 92% on the records (a proven pattern for games read like this one (team or draw)). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.11. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); PFC CSKA Sofia Under 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Panathinaikos 2-1 PFC CSKA Sofia (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).