Getafe vs Brighton
Match details. ECL, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Coliseum, Getafe. The referee is F. Glova.
What's at stake. Getafe are 30th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with FC Iberia 1999, level on points with Kairat Almaty. A win would take them above FC Iberia 1999. Brighton are 9th on 4 points after 2 games, 2 points behind HNK Hajduk Split, level on points with FC Copenhagen. A win would take them above HNK Hajduk Split.
Form. Getafe have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L D. Brighton have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D W.
The numbers. Getafe score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Getafe average 10.3 shots (4.0 on target), 5.4 corners and 3.7 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Brighton score 1.9 and concede 0.9 a game in their last seven away, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Brighton average 15.7 shots (5.4 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 74% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The case against. Getafe's record still gives them 23% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. Brighton to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Brighton the likelier winners; Brighton are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Brighton. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.35, 63% on the records (Getafe: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Brighton: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 7 away). Backup: Over 2.5 Cards at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Brighton or draw and under 3.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Getafe 0-2 Brighton (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).