FC Twente Enschede vs Pafos FC
Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at De Grolsch Veste, Enschede. The referee is M. Ocenas.
What's at stake. FC Twente Enschede are 5th on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Trabzonspor, level on points with Monaco. A win would take them above Trabzonspor. Pafos FC are 27th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with Aarhus, level on points with Heart Of Midlothian. A win would take them above Aarhus.
Form. FC Twente Enschede have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. Pafos FC have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D D L.
The numbers. FC Twente Enschede score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. FC Twente Enschede average 16.9 shots (7.2 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 65% of the ball. Pafos FC score 1.3 and concede one a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets. Pafos FC average 14.9 shots (5.4 on target), 7.1 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 79% against the records' 47%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The read. No firm call: FC Twente Enschede are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. FC Twente Enschede are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Twente Enschede.
The bets. Best bet: Pafos FC Under 1.5 Goals at 1.36, 67% on the records (Pafos FC scored under 1.5 in 4 of 6 away; FC Twente Enschede conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home). Backup: Over 2.5 Cards at 1.38. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: FC Twente Enschede 2-1 Pafos FC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).