Copenhagen vs FC Iberia 1999
Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Parken, København. The referee is R. Hennessy.
What's at stake. Copenhagen are 10th on 4 points after 2 games, level on points with Brighton, level on points with Universitatea Craiova. A win would take them above Brighton. FC Iberia 1999 are 29th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with Heart Of Midlothian, level on points with Getafe. A win would take them above Heart Of Midlothian.
Form. Copenhagen have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D D D. FC Iberia 1999 have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W L. In this competition FC Iberia 1999 have gone D L.
The numbers. Copenhagen score 1.9 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets. Copenhagen average 11.9 shots (4.2 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. FC Iberia 1999 score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. FC Iberia 1999 average 7.2 shots (2.5 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 87% against the records' 40%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.
The read. No firm call: Copenhagen are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Copenhagen the likelier winners; Copenhagen are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 85% on the records (Copenhagen: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10; FC Iberia 1999: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.13. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Copenhagen 2-1 FC Iberia 1999 (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).