Sunderland AFC vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadium of Light, Sunderland. The referee is Andrea Colombo.
What's at stake. Sunderland AFC are 9th on 7 points after 3 games, level on points with Beşiktaş, 1 point clear of AZ Alkmaar. A win would take them above Beşiktaş. GNK Dinamo Zagreb are 18th on 4 points after 3 games, level on points with Levski Sofia, level on points with Sturm Graz. A win would take them above Levski Sofia.
Team news. Sunderland AFC are without J. Angulo (off the roster), D. Ballard (muscle injury), A. Browne (off the roster), H. Diarra (muscle injury), M. Ellborg (off the roster), R. Mundle (knee injury). N. Mukiele is their centre-back. GNK Dinamo Zagreb are without S. McKenna (inactive), R. Mudrazija (off the roster), I. Nevistic (off the roster), N. Nsoki (off the roster), P. Tabinas (off the roster), F. Topic (off the roster).
Form. Sunderland AFC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D L. GNK Dinamo Zagreb have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W.
The numbers. Sunderland AFC score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Sunderland AFC average 12.9 shots (4.3 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. GNK Dinamo Zagreb score two and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. GNK Dinamo Zagreb average 13.2 shots (5.2 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Sunderland AFC the likelier winners, but GNK Dinamo Zagreb are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The case against. GNK Dinamo Zagreb's record still gives them 41% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. Sunderland AFC or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Sunderland AFC the likelier winners; GNK Dinamo Zagreb are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.20, 77% on the records (Sunderland AFC: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; GNK Dinamo Zagreb: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 away). Full cover: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.21. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Sunderland AFC 2-1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).