INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

SGSTU

21:00Thu 5 Nov

NKC

Sturm Graz vs NK Celje

CLASS B

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Graz-Liebenau. The referee is Giorgi Kruashvili.

What's at stake. Sturm Graz are 19th on 4 points after 3 games, level on points with Dinamo Zagreb, level on points with NEC Nijmegen. A win would take them above Dinamo Zagreb. NK Celje are 29th on 1 point after 3 games, 2 points behind Torreense, level on points with Hapoel Beer Sheva. A win would take them above Torreense.

Team news. Sturm Graz are without N. Geyrhofer (off the roster), L. Grgic (knee injury), S. Jatta (shoulder injury), D. Khudyakov (leg injury), O. Kiteishvili (calf injury), G. Mamageishvili (injury). D. Khudyakov is their first-choice keeper. NK Celje are without I. Calusic (off the roster), J. Pisek (off the roster), R. Pozeg (off the roster), Z. L. Sega (off the roster), S. Sluga (off the roster), D. Vuklisevic (off the roster).

Form. Sturm Graz have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D W W. NK Celje have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D D.

The numbers. Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Sturm Graz average 12.1 shots (4.9 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 35% of the ball. NK Celje score 0.7 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. NK Celje average 9.4 shots (3.1 on target), 3.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.

The read. Sturm Graz or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Sturm Graz the likelier winners. Their xG points to an open game.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Sturm Graz 2-1 NK Celje (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Sturm Graz or Over 1.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

no price yet

STU 4 of 5 (80%) · NKC 4 of 6 (67%)83.7%

Sturm Graz: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · NK Celje: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 80% · Sturm Graz without D. Khudyakov (rule 3)

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.11

STU 4 of 5 (80%) · NKC 6 of 6 (100%)91.7%

Sturm Graz: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · NK Celje: under 5.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 95%

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.26

STU 4 of 5 (80%) · NKC 6 of 6 (100%)86.7%

Sturm Graz: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · NK Celje: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 90%

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.17

STU 3 of 5 (60%) · NKC 4 of 6 (67%)80.7%

Sturm Graz: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · NK Celje: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.18

STU 4 of 5 (80%) · NKC 6 of 6 (100%)88.3%

Sturm Graz: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · NK Celje: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.65

STU 2 of 5 (40%) · NKC 5 of 6 (83%)64.4%

Sturm Graz: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · NK Celje: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 70% · on half-time scores

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsIN CODES

1.20

STU 4 of 5 (80%) · NKC 3 of 5 (60%)72.8%

Sturm Graz's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 5 at home · NK Celje's games: over 2.5 cards in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 78%

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.6%

Sturm Graz goals →

NK Celje goals ↓

0-04%

1-07%

2-08%

3-05%

4-03%

5-01%

0-14%

1-110%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-11%

0-23%

1-26%

2-26%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.8%

0-31%

1-33%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.9%

5-30.4%

0-40.4%

1-40.8%

2-40.8%

3-40.6%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

STURM GRAZWDLWLWWDLD1.50 PPG

NK CELJELLDWLDDWDW1.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

STURM GRAZ HOMExNK CELJE AWAY

1.60SCORED A GAME1.101.40CONCEDED A GAME1.0030%CLEAN SHEETS50%67%FAILED TO SCORE67%5.50CORNERS A GAME3.442.90CARDS A GAME1.78

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.73POINTS A GAME1.58+0.55GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.42+1.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+3.11.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.811LEAGUE GAMES12

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

82%

OKAY · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

50%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

88%

OKAY · 85/90

STURM GRAZ OR DRAW

88%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

NK CELJE OR DRAW

57%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (11 and 12 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

STURM GRAZxNK CELJE

5GAMES72.40SCORED A GAME1.141.00CONCEDED A GAME1.143.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.380%OVER 1.5 GOALS71%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS43%80%BOTH SCORE57%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.2–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES10.6

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

STURM GRAZ

Out: N. Geyrhofer (Off the roster), L. Grgic (Knee Injury), S. Jatta (Shoulder Injury), D. Khudyakov (Leg Injury), O. Kiteishvili (Calf Injury), G. Mamageishvili (Injury)

NK CELJE

Out: I. Calusic (Off the roster), J. Pisek (Off the roster), R. Pozeg (Off the roster), Z. L. Sega (Off the roster), S. Sluga (Off the roster), D. Vuklisevic (Off the roster)

TRENDS

Sturm Graz have scored in 70% of their games.

NK Celje have scored in 60% of their games.

Sturm Graz kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

NK Celje kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards