Arbroath FC vs Queen of the South FC

Match details. Challenge Cup. Kick-off is Tue 3 Nov, 20:45 Lagos time.

Form. Arbroath FC have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. Queen of the South FC have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L W.

The numbers. Arbroath FC score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Arbroath FC average 4.5 shots (1.6 on target), 3.4 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Queen of the South FC score 0.5 and concede 2.5 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Queen of the South FC average 2.6 shots (1.2 on target), 0.2 corners and 0.4 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Arbroath FC the likelier winners, but Queen of the South FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Arbroath FC. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.

The case against. Queen of the South FC's record still gives them 43% to win.

The read. Arbroath FC to win. Their goals for and against make Arbroath FC the likelier winners; Queen of the South FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Arbroath FC.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Queen of the South FC Over 0.5 Goals (Queen of the South FC's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (Arbroath FC are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Arbroath FC are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Arbroath FC 1-0 Queen of the South FC (10% chance).