Gran Pena FC vs Racing Club Villalbes
Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 1. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:15 Lagos time.
Form. Gran Pena FC have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten league games, 1.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L L W L. Racing Club Villalbes have won two, drawn five and lost one of their last eight league games, 1.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D L D D.
The numbers. Gran Pena FC score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Gran Pena FC average 11.8 shots (5.9 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Racing Club Villalbes score 1.2 and concede 1.1 a game over their last eight, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Racing Club Villalbes average 7.7 shots (3.0 on target), 2.7 corners and 3.5 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.28, rated 78% (Gran Pena FC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Racing Club Villalbes: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Predicted score: Gran Pena FC 2-1 Racing Club Villalbes (10% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Gran Pena FC the favourite), an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).