Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 12, Group 12 - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. CD Marino are 8th on 13 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Tenerife C, level on points with Los Llanos. A win would take them above Tenerife C. UD Villa Santa Brigida are 14th on 9 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Estrella, level on points with Anaza. A win would take them above Estrella.
Form. CD Marino have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. UD Villa Santa Brigida have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D D.
The numbers. CD Marino score 2.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. CD Marino average 12.8 shots (6.8 on target), 4.2 corners and 3.3 cards a game. UD Villa Santa Brigida score 1.2 and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. UD Villa Santa Brigida average 7.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings CD Marino have won four, drawn one and lost five. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, CD Marino won two, one was drawn and UD Villa Santa Brigida won one. The last time they met, on 1 May 2026, it finished CD Marino 0-3 UD Villa Santa Brigida.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. UD Villa Santa Brigida's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. CD Marino to win. Their goals for and against make CD Marino the likelier winners; CD Marino are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Marino.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: CD Marino 2-1 UD Villa Santa Brigida (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).