Match details. Pernambucano, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 19:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. 1 de Maio are 5th on 1 point after 3 games, 4 points behind Ipojuca. Afogados Ingazeira PE are 3rd on 3 points after 3 games, 2 points behind Íbis. A win would take them above Íbis.
Form. 1 de Maio have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L W. Afogados Ingazeira PE have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L D.
The numbers. 1 de Maio score 1.2 and concede 2.8 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. 1 de Maio average 4.0 shots (1.3 on target), 0.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Afogados Ingazeira PE score 0.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal. Afogados Ingazeira PE average 2.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.30, rated 78% (1 de Maio: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10; Afogados Ingazeira PE: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Predicted score: 1 de Maio 1-2 Afogados Ingazeira PE (8% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Afogados Ingazeira PE the favourite), an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).