Match details. Premier League. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. Swedru All Blacks have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L D. FC AshantiGold 04 have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L W.
The numbers. Swedru All Blacks score one and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Swedru All Blacks average 7.9 shots (2.0 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.3 cards a game. FC AshantiGold 04 score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. FC AshantiGold 04 average 2.3 shots (0.8 on target), 0.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
The case against. FC AshantiGold 04's record still gives them 22% to win.
The read. Swedru All Blacks to win. A tight game. Swedru All Blacks are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Swedru All Blacks. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: FC AshantiGold 04 or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Swedru All Blacks); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Swedru All Blacks 1-0 FC AshantiGold 04 (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).