Match details. Liga Portugal 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio do FC Vizela. The referee is Vitor Jorge Fernandes Ferreira.
What's at stake. FC Vizela are 11th on 11 points after 8 games, level on points with Portimonense, 1 point clear of Torreense. A win would take them above Portimonense. Academica de Coimbra are 5th on 15 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Penafiel, 1 point clear of Farense. A win would take them above Penafiel.
Form. FC Vizela have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W D. Academica de Coimbra have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L.
The numbers. FC Vizela score 0.9 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and four games without a goal. FC Vizela average 10.4 shots (3.4 on target), 5.8 corners and 3.4 cards a game. Academica de Coimbra score 2.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Academica de Coimbra average 11.9 shots (4.7 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings FC Vizela have won two, drawn none and lost two. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 13 Mar 2021, it finished FC Vizela 3-1 Academica de Coimbra: FC Vizela had 12 shots to 10, 38% of the ball, four yellow cards.
The case against. FC Vizela's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. Academica de Coimbra to win. A tight game. Academica de Coimbra are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Academica de Coimbra. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Academica de Coimbra Over 0.5 goals (FC Vizela's own games don't back it (4 of 8)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: FC Vizela 0-1 Academica de Coimbra (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).