Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Celtic Park, Glasgow. The referee is Sascha Stegemann.
What's at stake. Celtic are 35th on 0 points after 3 games, level on points with Marseille, level on points with Ararat-Armenia. A win would take them above Marseille. Besiktas Istanbul are 8th on 7 points after 3 games, level on points with Juventus, level on points with Sunderland. A win would take them above Juventus.
Team news. Celtic are without L. Emenalo (off the roster), A. Johnston (leg injury), Jota (off the roster), S. Mheuka (off the roster), A. Trusty (inactive), Yang Hyun-Jun (hamstring injury). Besiktas Istanbul are without U. Akdag (red card), C. Keles (off the roster), O. Kokcu (foot injury), F. Miretti (shoulder injury), M. Rashica (off the roster), U. Akdag (red card).
Form. Celtic have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L W. Besiktas Istanbul have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L W.
The numbers. Celtic score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Celtic average 12.8 shots (5.5 on target), 7.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Besiktas Istanbul score 1.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Besiktas Istanbul average 13.7 shots (5.8 on target), 5.3 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.
The case against. Celtic's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. Besiktas Istanbul to win. An open game. Besiktas Istanbul are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Besiktas Istanbul. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 78%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14, 92% on the records (Celtic: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Besiktas Istanbul: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.13. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Besiktas Istanbul Over 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Besiktas Istanbul (Draw No Bet) (the signs point different ways); Besiktas Istanbul or draw and over 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Celtic 1-2 Besiktas Istanbul (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).