Trabzonspor vs Freiburg
Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Papara Park, Trabzon. The referee is K. Tohver.
What's at stake. Trabzonspor are 4th on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Brann, level on points with Twente. A win would take them above Brann. Freiburg are 18th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Gent, 1 point clear of FC Nordsjaelland. A win would take them above Gent.
Form. Trabzonspor have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. In this competition Trabzonspor have gone W W. Freiburg have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L L.
The numbers. Trabzonspor score three and concede none a game in their last five at home, with five clean sheets. Trabzonspor average 14.1 shots (6.2 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Freiburg score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Freiburg average 12.8 shots (5.3 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.
The case against. Trabzonspor's record still gives them 65% to win.
The read. Freiburg or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Trabzonspor are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Trabzonspor. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 76% on the records (Trabzonspor: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Freiburg: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.09. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Trabzonspor 1-2 Freiburg (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).