INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE

FTFCT

18:45Thu 5 Nov

HEA

FC Thun vs Heart of Midlothian FC

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stockhorn Arena, Thun. The referee is A. Kyriakos.

What's at stake. FC Thun are 32nd on 0 points after 2 games, 1 point behind Kairat Almaty, level on points with Lincoln Red Imps FC. A win would take them above Kairat Almaty. Heart of Midlothian FC are 28th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with Pafos, level on points with FC Iberia 1999. A win would take them above Pafos.

Form. FC Thun have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. In this competition FC Thun have gone L L. Heart of Midlothian FC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L L.

The numbers. FC Thun score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. FC Thun average 14.9 shots (4.4 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Heart of Midlothian FC score 1.3 and concede two a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Heart of Midlothian FC average 11.7 shots (4.7 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 41% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 55%.

The read. No firm call: Heart of Midlothian FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Heart of Midlothian FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Heart of Midlothian FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: FC Thun 1-2 Heart of Midlothian FC (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Heart of Midlothian FC or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

FCT 6 of 6 (100%) · HEA 4 of 5 (80%)88%

Heart of Midlothian FC: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · FC Thun: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

Heart of Midlothian FC win or both teams scoreIN CODES

1.28

FCT 5 of 6 (83%) · HEA 4 of 5 (80%)82.5%

Heart of Midlothian FC: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · FC Thun: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 90% · each game weighed by who it was against

Heart of Midlothian FC or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.34

FCT 4 of 6 (67%) · HEA 4 of 5 (80%)69.6%

Heart of Midlothian FC: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · FC Thun: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.12

FCT 4 of 5 (80%) · HEA 5 of 6 (83%)72.5%

FC Thun: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Heart of Midlothian FC: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 79% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.16

FCT 2 of 5 (40%) · HEA 6 of 6 (100%)70.5%

FC Thun: over 1.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · Heart of Midlothian FC: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 4.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.29

FCT 3 of 5 (60%) · HEA 5 of 6 (83%)63.1%

FC Thun: under 4.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Heart of Midlothian FC: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 64% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.54

FCT 2 of 5 (40%) · HEA 3 of 6 (50%)51.4%

FC Thun: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · Heart of Midlothian FC: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 61% · each game weighed by who it was against

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.50

FCT 2 of 5 (40%) · HEA 3 of 6 (50%)57.7%

FC Thun: both scored in 2 of 5 at home · Heart of Midlothian FC: both scored in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 61% · each game weighed by who it was against

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN FC GOALS

Heart of Midlothian FC Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.29

FCT 5 of 6 (83%) · HEA 4 of 5 (80%)82.5%

Heart of Midlothian FC scored in 5 of 6 away · FC Thun conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 90% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.30

FCT 4 of 5 (80%) · HEA 6 of 6 (100%)90.7%

FC Thun: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Heart of Midlothian FC: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 91% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5LEANPAGE ONLY

1.17

FCT 2 of 5 (40%) · HEA 6 of 6 (100%)69%

FC Thun: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · Heart of Midlothian FC: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 81% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 3.5 CardsIN CODES

1.49

FCT 7 of 8 (88%) · HEA 5 of 6 (83%)87%

FC Thun's games: over 3.5 cards in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Heart of Midlothian FC's games: over 3.5 cards in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 89% · each game weighed by who it was against

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 8.8%

FC Thun goals →

Heart of Midlothian FC goals ↓

0-06%

1-07%

2-05%

3-02%

4-00.8%

5-00.2%

0-17%

1-112%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-29%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.3%

0-33%

1-35%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.5%

5-30.2%

0-41%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.6%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.4%

1-50.6%

2-50.4%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

FC THUNDLLLWLLLLW0.70 PPG

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN FCWLDWDLLWDL1.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

FC THUN HOMExHEART OF MIDLOTHIAN FC AWAY

1.50SCORED A GAME1.702.20CONCEDED A GAME1.700%CLEAN SHEETS30%25%FAILED TO SCORE25%5.38CORNERS A GAME5.402.88CARDS A GAME2.20

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.08POINTS A GAME1.56-0.83GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.22-0.9SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+1.11.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.612LEAGUE GAMES9

Heart of Midlothian FC: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

85%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

44%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

95%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

FC THUN OR DRAW

41%

NO · 80/85

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN FC OR DRAW

78%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (12 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

FC THUNxHEART OF MIDLOTHIAN FC

5GAMES60.80SCORED A GAME1.502.80CONCEDED A GAME2.173.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.760%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS67%40%BOTH SCORE83%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.0–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES10.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

FC Thun have scored in 60% of their games.

Heart of Midlothian FC have scored in 90% of their games.

FC Thun kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

Heart of Midlothian FC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards