Atalanta vs FC Kairat Almaty
Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo. The referee is J. Weinberger.
What's at stake. Atalanta are 15th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Borac Banja Luka, level on points with SC Braga. A win would take them above Borac Banja Luka. FC Kairat Almaty are 31st on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with Getafe, 1 point clear of FC Thun. A win would take them above Getafe.
Form. Atalanta have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L L. FC Kairat Almaty have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L W D. In this competition FC Kairat Almaty have gone L D.
The numbers. Atalanta score 2.2 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Atalanta average 14.1 shots (4.6 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. FC Kairat Almaty score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. FC Kairat Almaty average 4.6 shots (1.2 on target), 1.6 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. FC Kairat Almaty's record still gives them 43% to win.
The read. Atalanta to win. An open game. FC Kairat Almaty are the stronger side on form and the table. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 77%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.28, 77% on the records (Atalanta: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; FC Kairat Almaty: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 10). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.24. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Atalanta 2-1 FC Kairat Almaty (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).