INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE

AAAGF

18:45Thu 5 Nov

BRA

BRA

AGF Aarhus vs Braga

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Ceres Park & Arena, Århus. The referee is F. Badstubner.

What's at stake. AGF Aarhus are 26th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with FC Midtjylland, level on points with Pafos. A win would take them above FC Midtjylland. Braga are 16th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Atalanta, level on points with Gent. A win would take them above Atalanta.

Form. AGF Aarhus have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D D. In this competition AGF Aarhus have gone D L. Braga have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W L.

The numbers. AGF Aarhus score 1.7 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. AGF Aarhus average 11.3 shots (2.6 on target), 4.1 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Braga score 1.1 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Braga average 13.9 shots (4.8 on target), 6.1 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.

The case against. AGF Aarhus's record still gives them 45% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The read. Braga or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make AGF Aarhus the likelier winners; AGF Aarhus are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AGF Aarhus. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: AGF Aarhus 1-2 Braga (7% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Braga or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

AGF 8 of 10 (80%) · BRA 10 of 10 (100%)85.1%

Braga: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AGF Aarhus: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · each game weighed by who it was against

Braga win or both teams scoreIN CODES

1.18

AGF 7 of 10 (70%) · BRA 9 of 10 (90%)80.2%

Braga: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AGF Aarhus: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

Braga or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.42

AGF 8 of 10 (80%) · BRA 8 of 10 (80%)65.2%

Braga: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AGF Aarhus: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.16

AGF 9 of 10 (90%) · BRA 10 of 10 (100%)97.5%

AGF Aarhus: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Braga: under 4.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.31

AGF 9 of 10 (90%) · BRA 7 of 10 (70%)70.2%

AGF Aarhus: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Braga: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

BRAGA GOALS

Braga Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.19

AGF 7 of 10 (70%) · BRA 9 of 10 (90%)80.2%

Braga scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AGF Aarhus conceded in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.24

AGF 9 of 10 (90%) · BRA 8 of 10 (80%)85.3%

AGF Aarhus: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Braga: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.44

AGF 8 of 10 (80%) · BRA 8 of 10 (80%)80.4%

AGF Aarhus: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Braga: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsIN CODES

1.30

AGF 5 of 7 (71%) · BRA 8 of 10 (80%)75.3%

AGF Aarhus's games: over 2.5 cards in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Braga's games: over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · each game weighed by who it was against

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 6.9%

AGF Aarhus goals →

Braga goals ↓

0-08%

1-010%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.5%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.3%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.8%

2-40.6%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

AGF AARHUSLWDWLDDWWL1.50 PPG

BRAGALWDLLLWLDW1.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AGF AARHUS HOMExBRAGA AWAY

1.70SCORED A GAME1.101.20CONCEDED A GAME1.3010%CLEAN SHEETS40%23%FAILED TO SCORE38%4.14CORNERS A GAME6.101.86CARDS A GAME2.10

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

0.91POINTS A GAME1.40-0.36GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.10-0.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+3.61.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.811LEAGUE GAMES10

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

68%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

44%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

97%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

AGF AARHUS OR DRAW

81%

OKAY · 80/85

BRAGA OR DRAW

60%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (11 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

AGF AARHUSxBRAGA

5GAMES51.80SCORED A GAME1.001.40CONCEDED A GAME1.203.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.2100%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE60%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

AGF Aarhus have scored in 80% of their games.

Braga have scored in 70% of their games.

AGF Aarhus kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Braga kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards