Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Letná, Prague. The referee is Erik Lambrechts.
What's at stake. Sparta Prague are 16th on 4 points after 3 games, level on points with Crystal Palace, level on points with Levski Sofia. A win would take them above Crystal Palace. Bournemouth are 4th on 9 points after 3 games, level on points with Bayer Leverkusen, level on points with Ferencvarosi TC. A win would take them above Bayer Leverkusen.
Team news. Sparta Prague are without M. Andersen (knee injury), A. Karabec (ankle injury), J. Mercado (calf injury), O. Penxa (knee injury), M. Rynes (ankle injury), A. Sevinsky (injury). J. Mercado is their top scorer. J. Mercado is their centre-back. Bournemouth are without M. Aarons (off the roster), J. Araujo (thigh injury), F. Forster (off the roster), D. Jebbison (off the roster), V. Milosavljevic (off the roster), J. Sanchez (off the roster).
Form. Sparta Prague have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L D. Bournemouth have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Sparta Prague score two and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Sparta Prague average 17.8 shots (6.7 on target), 7.9 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Bournemouth score 2.1 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets. Bournemouth average 14.4 shots (5.9 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The case against. Sparta Prague's record still gives them 38% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. Bournemouth to win. An open game. Bournemouth are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bournemouth. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 90% on the records (Sparta Prague: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Bournemouth: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.10. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: 1X2 - 2UP: Bournemouth (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Sparta Prague 1-2 Bournemouth (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).