Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen. The referee is Goga Kikacheishvili.
What's at stake. NEC Nijmegen are 20th on 4 points after 3 games, level on points with Sturm Graz, level on points with Red Bull Salzburg. A win would take them above Sturm Graz. AC Omonia Nicosia are 11th on 6 points after 3 games, level on points with AZ Alkmaar, level on points with Rennes. A win would take them above AZ Alkmaar.
Team news. NEC Nijmegen are without M. Bakker (off the roster), D. Geiger (injury), I. Hansen-Aaroen (off the roster), E. Mor (groin injury), B. Nuytinck (ankle injury), P. Sandler (injury). AC Omonia Nicosia are without C. Eiting (knee injury), F. Kitsos (inactive), L. Nego (muscle injury), C. Eiting (knee injury), F. Kitsos (inactive), L. Nego (muscle injury).
Form. NEC Nijmegen have won one, drawn six and lost three of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D D. AC Omonia Nicosia have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D W.
The numbers. NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. NEC Nijmegen average 12.8 shots (4.8 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. AC Omonia Nicosia score two and concede one a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. AC Omonia Nicosia average 15.0 shots (6.5 on target), 6.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.
The case against. AC Omonia Nicosia's record still gives them 35% to win.
The read. NEC Nijmegen or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make AC Omonia Nicosia the likelier winners; AC Omonia Nicosia are the stronger side on form and the table. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.18, 88% on the records (NEC Nijmegen: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; AC Omonia Nicosia: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.10. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 AC Omonia Nicosia (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).