Lillestroem SK vs Viktoria Plzen
Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom. The referee is Radoslav Gidzhenov.
What's at stake. Lillestroem SK are 31st on 1 point after 3 games, level on points with Hapoel Beer Sheva, level on points with Lech Poznan. A win would take them above Hapoel Beer Sheva. Viktoria Plzen are 33rd on 0 points after 3 games, 1 point behind Lech Poznan, level on points with Marseille. A win would take them above Lech Poznan.
Team news. Lillestroem SK are without E. B. Garnas (knee injury), C. Jebara (groin injury), E. B. Garnas (knee injury), C. Jebara (groin injury). Viktoria Plzen are without V. Jemelka (knee injury), M. Tvrdon (off the roster), V. Jemelka (knee injury), M. Tvrdon (off the roster).
Form. Lillestroem SK have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. Viktoria Plzen have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W.
The numbers. Lillestroem SK score 1.6 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Lillestroem SK average 12.9 shots (5.0 on target), 6.2 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Viktoria Plzen score three and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Viktoria Plzen average 13.8 shots (4.8 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
The case against. Lillestroem SK's record still gives them 45% to win.
The read. Viktoria Plzen or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Viktoria Plzen the likelier winners. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 95%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 98% on the records (Lillestroem SK: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Viktoria Plzen: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.10. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Lillestroem SK 1-2 Viktoria Plzen (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).