Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at Selhurst Park, London. The referee is Horatiu Fesnic.
What's at stake. Crystal Palace are 15th on 4 points after 3 games, level on points with Real Sociedad, level on points with Sparta Praha. A win would take them above Real Sociedad. Hoffenheim are 23rd on 3 points after 3 games, level on points with Anderlecht, level on points with AC Milan. A win would take them above Anderlecht.
Team news. Crystal Palace are without C. Doucoure (off the roster), Z. Gozo (off the roster), E. Guessand (off the roster), J. Lerma (off the roster), C. Riad (knee injury), T. Tomiyasu (calf injury). Hoffenheim are without B. Conte (groin injury), N. De Cat (knee injury), L. Engelns (off the roster), V. Gendrey (ankle injury), A. Hajdari (foot injury), R. Hranac (knee injury). V. Coufal is their main creator. V. Coufal is their centre-back.
Form. Crystal Palace have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D L. Hoffenheim have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W W.
The numbers. Crystal Palace score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Crystal Palace average 8.6 shots (3.4 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Hoffenheim score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Hoffenheim average 13.6 shots (4.5 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Crystal Palace the likelier winners, but Hoffenheim are the stronger side on form and the table.
The case against. Hoffenheim's record still gives them 38% to win.
The read. Crystal Palace or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Crystal Palace the likelier winners; Hoffenheim are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.13, 77% on the records (Crystal Palace: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10; Hoffenheim: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.13. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Crystal Palace 2-1 Hoffenheim (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).