INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

AMACM

18:45Thu 5 Nov

FER

AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi Budapest

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 18:45 Lagos time. It is played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. The referee is Urs Schnyder.

What's at stake. AC Milan are 24th on 3 points after 3 games, level on points with 1899 Hoffenheim, level on points with Celta Vigo. A win would take them above 1899 Hoffenheim. Ferencvarosi Budapest are 5th on 9 points after 3 games, level on points with Bournemouth, 2 points clear of Union St. Gilloise. A win would take them above Bournemouth.

Team news. AC Milan are without W. Bondo (off the roster), S. Chukwueze (hip injury), M. Gabbia (thigh injury), R. Loftus-Cheek (thigh injury), M. Maignan (red card), A. Saelemaekers (ankle injury). M. Maignan is their first-choice keeper. Ferencvarosi Budapest are without E. Botka (inactive), B. Nagy (off the roster), B. Otvos (knee injury), I. Pappoe (off the roster), G. Szecsi (off the roster), F. Kovacevic (injury).

Form. AC Milan have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L W. Ferencvarosi Budapest have won eight, drawn two and lost none of their last ten, 2.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. In this competition Ferencvarosi Budapest have gone W W W W W D.

The numbers. AC Milan score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. AC Milan average 10.8 shots (5.1 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Ferencvarosi Budapest score 2.3 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Ferencvarosi Budapest average 11.7 shots (5.2 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

The case against. Ferencvarosi Budapest's record still gives them 58% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 73%.

The read. AC Milan or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Ferencvarosi Budapest the likelier winners; Ferencvarosi Budapest are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ferencvarosi Budapest.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: AC Milan 1-1 Ferencvarosi Budapest (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

AC Milan or Over 1.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACM 5 of 5 (100%) · FER 8 of 10 (80%)93.8%

AC Milan: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Ferencvarosi Budapest: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · AC Milan without M. Maignan (rule 3)

AC Milan or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.16

ACM 4 of 5 (80%) · FER 7 of 10 (70%)71.9%

AC Milan: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Ferencvarosi Budapest: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · AC Milan without M. Maignan (rule 3)

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.10

ACM 4 of 5 (80%) · FER 10 of 10 (100%)94.8%

AC Milan: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Ferencvarosi Budapest: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95%

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.17

ACM 5 of 5 (100%) · FER 8 of 10 (80%)87.5%

AC Milan: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Ferencvarosi Budapest: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90%

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.26

ACM 3 of 5 (60%) · FER 9 of 10 (90%)86.4%

AC Milan: under 4.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Ferencvarosi Budapest: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85%

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANIN CODES

1.55

ACM 4 of 5 (80%) · FER 7 of 10 (70%)58.3%

AC Milan: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Ferencvarosi Budapest: over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70%

AC MILAN GOALS

AC Milan Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.09

ACM 4 of 5 (80%) · FER 6 of 10 (60%)81.2%

AC Milan scored in 4 of 5 at home · Ferencvarosi Budapest conceded in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70%

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.27

ACM 5 of 5 (100%) · FER 8 of 10 (80%)88.3%

AC Milan: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Ferencvarosi Budapest: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.18

ACM 4 of 5 (80%) · FER 9 of 10 (90%)86.7%

AC Milan: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Ferencvarosi Budapest: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 8.6%

AC Milan goals →

Ferencvarosi Budapest goals ↓

0-03%

1-03%

2-02%

3-01%

4-00.3%

5-00.1%

0-16%

1-19%

2-15%

3-12%

4-10.8%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-29%

2-26%

3-23%

4-20.9%

5-20.2%

0-35%

1-37%

2-35%

3-32%

4-30.7%

5-30.2%

0-43%

1-44%

2-43%

3-41%

4-40.4%

5-40.1%

0-51%

1-52%

2-51%

3-50.6%

4-50.2%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

AC MILANDLWDWWLWLW1.70 PPG

FERENCVAROSI BUDAPESTWWDWDWWWWW2.60 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AC MILAN HOMExFERENCVAROSI BUDAPEST AWAY

2.00SCORED A GAME2.301.50CONCEDED A GAME0.7030%CLEAN SHEETS30%67%FAILED TO SCORE0%3.90CORNERS A GAME5.122.10CARDS A GAME2.50

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.10POINTS A GAME1.82+0.90GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.91+0.3SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+6.62.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.810LEAGUE GAMES11

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

86%

VERY GOOD · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

66%

NO · 85/90

AC MILAN OR DRAW

65%

NO · 80/85

FERENCVAROSI BUDAPEST OR DRAW

54%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 11 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

AC MILANxFERENCVAROSI BUDAPEST

5GAMES62.60SCORED A GAME1.671.40CONCEDED A GAME1.174.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.8100%OVER 1.5 GOALS83%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS50%60%BOTH SCORE67%2.6CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–6.6CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

AC MILAN

Out: W. Bondo (Off the roster), S. Chukwueze (Hip Injury), M. Gabbia (Thigh Injury), R. Loftus-Cheek (Thigh Injury), M. Maignan (Red Card), A. Saelemaekers (Ankle Injury)

FERENCVAROSI BUDAPEST

Out: E. Botka (Inactive), B. Nagy (Off the roster), B. Otvos (Knee Injury), I. Pappoe (Off the roster), G. Szecsi (Off the roster), F. Kovacevic (Injury)

TRENDS

AC Milan have scored in 80% of their games.

Ferencvarosi Budapest have scored in 100% of their games.

AC Milan kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Ferencvarosi Budapest kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards