Match details. Segunda Division. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time.
Form. Real San Joaquin have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D L. CD Provincial Ovalle FC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W D.
The numbers. Real San Joaquin score one and concede two a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Real San Joaquin average 9.3 shots (3.6 on target), 4.7 corners and 4.4 cards a game. CD Provincial Ovalle FC score 1.1 and concede two a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Provincial Ovalle FC average 10.3 shots (6.3 on target), 6.0 corners and 4.3 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.28, rated 75% (Real San Joaquin: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10; CD Provincial Ovalle FC: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10). Predicted score: Real San Joaquin 1-2 CD Provincial Ovalle FC (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (CD Provincial Ovalle FC the favourite), an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).