Swindon Town vs Bridgwater United Women
Match details. FA Cup, Women. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. Swindon Town have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. Bridgwater United Women have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L W L.
The numbers. Swindon Town score 2.2 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Bridgwater United Women score 1.3 and concede two a game in their last seven away, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal.
The case against. Bridgwater United Women's record still gives them 42% to win.
The read. Swindon Town to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Swindon Town the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Swindon Town. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, rated 82% (Swindon Town: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Bridgwater United Women: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 7 away). Backup: Swindon Town or Bridgwater United Women at 1.21. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Swindon Town 2-1 Bridgwater United Women (10% chance).
The agreed story. Swindon Town or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Swindon Town in their last cup games: lost 0-2 v Newport County, lost 1-2 v Crystal Palace U21. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).