Match details. Serie B, Women. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Bologna FC have won four, drawn one and lost four of their last nine league games, 1.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L W L D. Hellas Verona have won two, drawn three and lost four of their last nine league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D W D L W.
The numbers. Bologna FC score 1.4 and concede 1.1 a game over their last nine, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Hellas Verona score 0.9 and concede one a game over their last nine, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Bologna FC 1-1 Hellas Verona (14% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Bologna FC the favourite), goals in between.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).