CD Covadonga vs Condal Club
Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 2, Group 2 - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 12:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. CD Covadonga are 2nd on 19 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Sporting Gijón II, 2 points clear of Lealtad. A win would take them above Sporting Gijón II. Condal Club are 4th on 16 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Lealtad, 1 point clear of Caudal. A win would take them above Lealtad.
Form. CD Covadonga have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. Condal Club have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W D W.
The numbers. CD Covadonga score 2.7 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. CD Covadonga average 10.5 shots (5.9 on target), 5.6 corners and 3.5 cards a game. Condal Club score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Condal Club average 9.8 shots (4.2 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Head to head. CD Covadonga have won all of the last six meetings. Five of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, CD Covadonga won four. The last time they met, on 16 Apr 2025, it finished CD Covadonga 5-0 Condal Club.
The case against. Condal Club's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. CD Covadonga to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make CD Covadonga the likelier winners; CD Covadonga are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Covadonga; the meetings favour CD Covadonga. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%. Five of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: CD Covadonga or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: CD Covadonga 2-1 Condal Club (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).