Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 18, Group 18 - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. UD Almansa are 12th on 11 points after 8 games, 1 point behind San Clemente, 4 points clear of Villarrubia. A win would take them above San Clemente. CP Villarrobledo are 4th on 16 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Villacañas, 1 point clear of Tarancón. A win would take them above Villacañas.
Form. UD Almansa have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L W. CP Villarrobledo have won four, drawn six and lost none of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W W.
The numbers. UD Almansa score 2.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. UD Almansa average 11.7 shots (4.6 on target), 4.4 corners and 3.6 cards a game. CP Villarrobledo score 1.2 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five away, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. CP Villarrobledo average 15.7 shots (6.0 on target), 6.7 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. CP Villarrobledo have won all of the last two meetings. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 13 Mar 2022, it finished UD Almansa 1-3 CP Villarrobledo.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.23, 73% on the records (UD Almansa: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; CP Villarrobledo: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Leave: CP Villarrobledo or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); UD Almansa Under 1.5 goals (UD Almansa's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: UD Almansa 1-1 CP Villarrobledo (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).