UE Tona vs FC Martinenc
Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 5, Group 5 - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 11:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. UE Tona are 12th on 10 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Cornellà, level on points with San Juan Atletico de Montcada. A win would take them above Cornellà. FC Martinenc are 7th on 12 points after 8 games, level on points with Grama, level on points with Cerdanyola del Vallès. A win would take them above Grama.
Form. UE Tona have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L. FC Martinenc have won three, drawn three and lost two of their last eight, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. In this competition FC Martinenc have gone W L D W L D.
The numbers. UE Tona score one and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. UE Tona average 10.6 shots (6.4 on target), 3.6 corners and 3.0 cards a game. FC Martinenc score 2.2 and concede 2.1 a game over their last eight, with no clean sheets. FC Martinenc average 6.3 shots (3.3 on target), 3.6 corners and 3.4 cards a game.
The case against. UE Tona's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. FC Martinenc to win. An open game. FC Martinenc are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Martinenc. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: UE Tona 1-2 FC Martinenc (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).