SPAIN AMATEUR - TERCERA FEDERACION, GROUP 7

ATADT

11:30Sun 1 Nov

REA

AD Torrejon CF vs Real Aranjuez CF

CLASS E

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THE READ

Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 7, Group 7 - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 11:30 Lagos time.

What's at stake. AD Torrejon CF are 10th on 10 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Leganés II, level on points with Fuenlabrada. A win would take them above Leganés II. Real Aranjuez CF are 14th on 7 points after 8 games, level on points with Alcobendas Sport, level on points with Parla Escuela. A win would take them above Alcobendas Sport.

Form. AD Torrejon CF have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W L. Real Aranjuez CF have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D W L.

The numbers. AD Torrejon CF score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. AD Torrejon CF average 10.2 shots (4.2 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.8 cards a game. Real Aranjuez CF score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Real Aranjuez CF average 12.2 shots (4.4 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.4 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last two meetings AD Torrejon CF have won one, drawn none and lost one. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 19 Feb 2023, it finished AD Torrejon CF 4-2 Real Aranjuez CF.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.

The case against. Real Aranjuez CF's record still gives them 32% to win.

The read. AD Torrejon CF to win. Their goals for and against make AD Torrejon CF the likelier winners; AD Torrejon CF are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AD Torrejon CF.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 3.5 Cards (the signs point different ways); Real Aranjuez CF Over 0.5 goals (AD Torrejon CF's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: AD Torrejon CF 2-1 Real Aranjuez CF (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

AD Torrejon CF or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADT 4 of 5 (80%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)85%

AD Torrejon CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Real Aranjuez CF: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · AD Torrejon CF: only games against sides at Real Aranjuez CF's level · Real Aranjuez CF: only games against sides at AD Torrejon CF's level

AD Torrejon CF or Both Teams ScorePAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADT 3 of 5 (60%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)76.7%

AD Torrejon CF: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Real Aranjuez CF: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · AD Torrejon CF: only games against sides at Real Aranjuez CF's level · Real Aranjuez CF: only games against sides at AD Torrejon CF's level

AD Torrejon CF or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADT 4 of 5 (80%) · REA 3 of 5 (60%)73.3%

AD Torrejon CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Real Aranjuez CF: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · AD Torrejon CF: only games against sides at Real Aranjuez CF's level · Real Aranjuez CF: only games against sides at AD Torrejon CF's level

AD Torrejon CF or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADT 4 of 5 (80%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)73.3%

AD Torrejon CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Real Aranjuez CF: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 60% · AD Torrejon CF: only games against sides at Real Aranjuez CF's level · Real Aranjuez CF: only games against sides at AD Torrejon CF's level

AD Torrejon CF or Draw (1UP)LEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADT 3 of 5 (60%) · REA 3 of 5 (60%)69.2%

AD Torrejon CF scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3 · led or was unbeaten in 3 of 5 at home · Real Aranjuez CF trailed or failed to win in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · AD Torrejon CF: only games against sides at Real Aranjuez CF's level · Real Aranjuez CF: only games against sides at AD Torrejon CF's level

AD Torrejon CF 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADT 3 of 5 (60%) · REA 3 of 5 (60%)60.8%

AD Torrejon CF scored first 3 of last 5, led in 3 · led in 3 of 5 at home · Real Aranjuez CF trailed in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · AD Torrejon CF: only games against sides at Real Aranjuez CF's level · Real Aranjuez CF: only games against sides at AD Torrejon CF's level

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADT 5 of 5 (100%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)98.3%

AD Torrejon CF: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Real Aranjuez CF: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · AD Torrejon CF: only games against sides at Real Aranjuez CF's level · Real Aranjuez CF: only games against sides at AD Torrejon CF's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADT 5 of 5 (100%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)90%

AD Torrejon CF: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Real Aranjuez CF: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 90% · AD Torrejon CF: only games against sides at Real Aranjuez CF's level · Real Aranjuez CF: only games against sides at AD Torrejon CF's level

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADT 5 of 5 (100%) · REA 4 of 5 (80%)90%

AD Torrejon CF: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Real Aranjuez CF: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 90% · AD Torrejon CF: only games against sides at Real Aranjuez CF's level · Real Aranjuez CF: only games against sides at AD Torrejon CF's level

AD TORREJON CF GOALS

AD Torrejon CF Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ADT 3 of 5 (60%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)76.7%

AD Torrejon CF scored in 3 of 5 at home · Real Aranjuez CF conceded in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · AD Torrejon CF: only games against sides at Real Aranjuez CF's level · Real Aranjuez CF: only games against sides at AD Torrejon CF's level

Left off the list: Over 3.5 Cards (the numbers (71%) and the records (98%) are 27 points apart, and nothing settles it); Real Aranjuez CF Over 0.5 goals (AD Torrejon CF's own games don't back it (2 of 5))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.5%

AD Torrejon CF goals →

Real Aranjuez CF goals ↓

0-06%

1-08%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.8%

0-24%

1-27%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.5%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.6%

5-30.2%

0-40.5%

1-40.8%

2-40.7%

3-40.4%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

AD TORREJON CFLLLWLLWDWL1.00 PPG

REAL ARANJUEZ CFLLLLDLWDDD0.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AD TORREJON CF HOMExREAL ARANJUEZ CF AWAY

1.10SCORED A GAME1.201.10CONCEDED A GAME2.0030%CLEAN SHEETS10%38%FAILED TO SCORE25%5.00CORNERS A GAME3.882.80CARDS A GAME2.38

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

AD TORREJON CF 1 · 50%DRAW 0REAL ARANJUEZ CF 1 · 50%

2022-10-16AD Torrejon CF 0 – 3 Real Aranjuez CF

2023-02-19AD Torrejon CF 4 – 2 Real Aranjuez CF

TRENDS

AD Torrejon CF have scored in 50% of their games.

Real Aranjuez CF have scored in 60% of their games.

AD Torrejon CF kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Real Aranjuez CF kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards