HOHOP

18:00Sun 1 Nov

MON

H2O Purepechas FC vs Montaneses FC

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Liga Primera Premier, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 18:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. H2O Purepechas FC are 17th on 4 points after 7 games, 2 points behind Tapachula, 2 points clear of Tritons Vallarta. A win would take them above Tapachula. Montaneses FC are 13th on 10 points after 9 games, level on points with Los Cabos United, 3 points clear of Cordobés. A win would take them above Los Cabos United.

Form. H2O Purepechas FC have won one, drawn one and lost five of their last seven league games, 0.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W L L L. In this competition H2O Purepechas FC have gone L W L L L L. Montaneses FC have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W.

The numbers. H2O Purepechas FC score 0.4 and concede 1.1 a game over their last seven, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. H2O Purepechas FC average 7.3 shots (2.5 on target), 3.3 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Montaneses FC score one and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Montaneses FC average 10.5 shots (3.5 on target), 3.2 corners and 3.2 cards a game.

The case against. H2O Purepechas FC's record still gives them 35% to win.

The read. Montaneses FC to win. A tight game. Montaneses FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Montaneses FC.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: H2O Purepechas FC 0-1 Montaneses FC (8% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Montaneses FC the favourite), a tight game.

The league run. H2O Purepechas FC: up and down in the league (L W L L L). Montaneses FC: lost their last two league games (L L W L W).

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Montaneses FC or Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

MON 3 of 9 (33%) · HOP 7 of 7 (100%)46.7%

Montaneses FC: the bet landed in 3 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · H2O Purepechas FC: the bet landed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 67% · Montaneses FC: only games against sides at H2O Purepechas FC's level

Montaneses FC or Draw (1UP)LEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

MON 2 of 5 (40%) · HOP 5 of 8 (62%)43.9%

Montaneses FC scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 2 · led or was unbeaten in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · H2O Purepechas FC trailed or failed to win in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Montaneses FC: only games against sides at H2O Purepechas FC's level

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

HOP 7 of 7 (100%) · MON 9 of 9 (100%)96.4%

H2O Purepechas FC: under 5.5 goals in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Montaneses FC: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · Montaneses FC: only games against sides at H2O Purepechas FC's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

HOP 7 of 7 (100%) · MON 8 of 9 (89%)92.6%

H2O Purepechas FC: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Montaneses FC: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · Montaneses FC: only games against sides at H2O Purepechas FC's level

MONTANESES FC GOALS

Montaneses FC Over 0.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

MON 8 of 9 (89%) · HOP 6 of 7 (86%)49.7%

Montaneses FC scored in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · H2O Purepechas FC conceded in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 87% · Montaneses FC: only games against sides at H2O Purepechas FC's level

Left off the list: Montaneses FC or Over 2.5 Goals (the numbers (60%) and the records (80%) are 20 points apart, and nothing settles it); Montaneses FC 1UP (the numbers (46%) and the records (58%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); H2O Purepechas FC Under 1.5 goals (Montaneses FC's own games don't back it (2 of 9))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 8%

H2O Purepechas FC goals →

Montaneses FC goals ↓

0-09%

1-010%

2-08%

3-04%

4-01%

5-00.4%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.8%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

H2O PUREPECHAS FCDLLLLWL0.57 PPG

MONTANESES FCLDDLLWLWLL0.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

H2O PUREPECHAS FC HOMExMONTANESES FC AWAY

0.43SCORED A GAME1.201.14CONCEDED A GAME1.9014%CLEAN SHEETS0%71%FAILED TO SCORE11%3.33CORNERS A GAME3.252.50CARDS A GAME3.25

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

0.57POINTS A GAME0.89-0.71GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.67+0.4SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.40.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.27LEAGUE GAMES9

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

83%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

54%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

H2O PUREPECHAS FC OR DRAW

83%

OKAY · 80/85

MONTANESES FC OR DRAW

44%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

H2O PUREPECHAS FCxMONTANESES FC

5GAMES50.40SCORED A GAME1.400.80CONCEDED A GAME2.001.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.420%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%0%OVER 2.5 GOALS100%0%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

H2O Purepechas FC have scored in 29% of their games.

Montaneses FC have scored in 80% of their games.

H2O Purepechas FC kept a clean sheet in 14% of their games.

Montaneses FC kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards