Ethnikos Asteras FC vs AE Mykonou
Match details. Gamma Ethniki, Group 9 - 6. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Ethnikos Asteras FC are 9th on 3 points after 5 games, 2 points behind Ilioupoli, level on points with Saronikos Anavyssou. A win would take them above Ilioupoli. AE Mykonou are 2nd on 10 points after 5 games, 2 points behind Ilisiakos, level on points with Thyella Diastavroseos. A win would take them above Ilisiakos.
Form. Ethnikos Asteras FC have won one, drawn none and lost four of their last five, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L L. AE Mykonou have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W W.
The numbers. Ethnikos Asteras FC score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game over their last five, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Ethnikos Asteras FC average 4.6 shots (2.2 on target), 3.2 corners and 3.0 cards a game. AE Mykonou score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. AE Mykonou average 6.2 shots (2.2 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
The case against. Ethnikos Asteras FC's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. AE Mykonou to win. A tight game. AE Mykonou are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AE Mykonou. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 30%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: AE Mykonou to Win (the signs point different ways); Ethnikos Asteras FC Under 0.5 goals (AE Mykonou's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Ethnikos Asteras FC 0-1 AE Mykonou (15% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).