Amfiali vs Apollon Smyrnis
Match details. Gamma Ethniki, Group 8 - 6. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Amfiali are 10th on 4 points after 5 games, level on points with PAO Rouf, 1 point clear of Ialysos. A win would take them above PAO Rouf. Apollon Smyrnis are 3rd on 12 points after 5 games, 3 points behind Vyrona, 1 point clear of Afantou. A win would take them level on points with Vyrona.
Form. Amfiali have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W. Apollon Smyrnis have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W.
The numbers. Amfiali score 0.4 and concede 1.6 a game over their last five, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Amfiali average 5.2 shots (2.4 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game. Apollon Smyrnis score 1.3 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and three games without a goal. Apollon Smyrnis average 11.8 shots (4.8 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
The case against. Amfiali's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. Apollon Smyrnis to win. A tight game. Apollon Smyrnis are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Apollon Smyrnis. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 30%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Apollon Smyrnis or Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Amfiali 0-1 Apollon Smyrnis (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).