Match details. Thai League 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Satun United FC are 5th on 14 points after 8 games, level on points with Nong Bua Pitchaya, level on points with Muangthong United. A win would take them above Nong Bua Pitchaya. Nakhon Pathom United FC are 13th on 10 points after 8 games, level on points with Police Tero, 1 point clear of Muang Loei United. A win would take them above Police Tero.
Form. Satun United FC have won four, drawn two and lost two of their last eight, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W L. In this competition Satun United FC have gone W D D W L W. Nakhon Pathom United FC have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W D.
The numbers. Satun United FC score two and concede 1.4 a game over their last eight, with three clean sheets. Satun United FC average 9.2 shots (3.8 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.6 cards a game. Nakhon Pathom United FC score 0.4 and concede one a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Nakhon Pathom United FC average 6.8 shots (2.7 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.6 cards a game.
The case against. Nakhon Pathom United FC's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Satun United FC to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Satun United FC the likelier winners; Satun United FC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Satun United FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Satun United FC or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Satun United FC Over 0.5 Goals (Nakhon Pathom United FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Satun United FC 1-0 Nakhon Pathom United FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).