Match details. Serie D, Group F. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Notaresco Calcio have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D. L’Aquila Calcio 1927 have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W D.
The numbers. Notaresco Calcio score two and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Notaresco Calcio average 12.5 shots (5.0 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.3 cards a game. L’Aquila Calcio 1927 score 2.4 and concede two a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. L’Aquila Calcio 1927 average 8.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
The case against. Notaresco Calcio's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. L’Aquila Calcio 1927 to win. An open game. L’Aquila Calcio 1927 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour L’Aquila Calcio 1927. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Notaresco Calcio Over 0.5 Goals (L’Aquila Calcio 1927's own games don't back it (4 of 8)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Notaresco Calcio 1-2 L’Aquila Calcio 1927 (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).