Match details. Serie D, Group F. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Maceratese have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W D. Angelana 1930 have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L D.
The numbers. Maceratese score 0.5 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Maceratese average 9.0 shots (2.6 on target), 3.1 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Angelana 1930 score 0.5 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and six games without a goal. Angelana 1930 average 5.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
The case against. Angelana 1930's record still gives them 35% to win.
The read. Maceratese to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Maceratese the likelier winners; Maceratese are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 31%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Maceratese or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Maceratese Over 0.5 Goals (Maceratese's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Maceratese or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Maceratese 1-0 Angelana 1930 (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).