Match details. Serie D, Group D. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. GS Arconatese 1926 have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D D. US Citta Di Pontedera have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L L.
The numbers. GS Arconatese 1926 score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. GS Arconatese 1926 average 4.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. US Citta Di Pontedera score 0.8 and concede 2.3 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. US Citta Di Pontedera average 7.2 shots (2.4 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
The case against. US Citta Di Pontedera's record still gives them 36% to win.
The read. GS Arconatese 1926 to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make GS Arconatese 1926 the likelier winners; GS Arconatese 1926 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour GS Arconatese 1926. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: US Citta Di Pontedera or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs GS Arconatese 1926); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: GS Arconatese 1926 2-1 US Citta Di Pontedera (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).