Match details. Serie D, Group A, Group A - 10. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 14:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. HSL Derthona are 9th on 13 points after 9 games, level on points with Gozzano, level on points with Sanremese. A win would take them above Gozzano. Gsd Lascaris are 13th on 11 points after 9 games, level on points with Saluzzo, 1 point clear of Bra. A win would take them above Saluzzo.
Form. HSL Derthona have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L L D. Gsd Lascaris have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D L.
The numbers. HSL Derthona score 1.1 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. HSL Derthona average 9.0 shots (5.0 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Gsd Lascaris score 0.6 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Gsd Lascaris average 6.0 corners and 4.0 cards a game.
The case against. Gsd Lascaris's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. HSL Derthona to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make HSL Derthona the likelier winners; HSL Derthona are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 28%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: HSL Derthona 1-0 Gsd Lascaris (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).