AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle

Match details. Eredivisie, Women. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:45 Lagos time.

Form. AZ Alkmaar have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten league games, 1.5 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L L L W. PEC Zwolle have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten league games, 1.1 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D W L W.

The numbers. AZ Alkmaar score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. AZ Alkmaar average 7.3 shots (3.7 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. PEC Zwolle score 1.7 and concede 2.3 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 34% against the records' 60%.

The read. No firm call: AZ Alkmaar are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make AZ Alkmaar the likelier winners; both teams' records favour AZ Alkmaar. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, rated 77% (AZ Alkmaar: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; PEC Zwolle: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: AZ Alkmaar or PEC Zwolle at 1.25. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 PEC Zwolle (9% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (AZ Alkmaar the favourite), an open game.

Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. PEC Zwolle in their last cup games: lost 1-2 v TOP Oss (a division below). Too few cup games to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.