Match details. CAF Champions League, Women. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. FC Masar W have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W D. Mamelodi Sundowns have won six, drawn none and lost two of their last eight, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W.
The numbers. FC Masar W score 1.1 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and four games without a goal. FC Masar W average 3.8 corners and 0.8 cards a game. Mamelodi Sundowns score 1.9 and concede 0.4 a game over their last eight, with six clean sheets.
The case against. FC Masar W's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. Mamelodi Sundowns to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Mamelodi Sundowns the likelier winners; Mamelodi Sundowns are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Mamelodi Sundowns. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns at 1.14, rated 72% (Mamelodi Sundowns unbeaten in 6 of 8; FC Masar W failed to win 7 of 10). Backup: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: FC Masar W 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns (16% chance).
The agreed story. Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw, a tight game.
Cup and European games. The Champions League: the best against the best, and the two league tables cannot be compared. Mamelodi Sundowns in their last continental games: drew 1-1 v Wiliete SC, drew 0-0 at Wiliete SC, won 2-1 v Al Ahli Saudi FC. Too few continental games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).