Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland United FC
Match details. National League, Women. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 04:00 Lagos time.
Form. Wellington Phoenix have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W L. Auckland United FC have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W.
The numbers. Wellington Phoenix score 3.2 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Auckland United FC score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Wellington Phoenix the likelier winners, but Auckland United FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Wellington Phoenix. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Auckland United FC (12% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Wellington Phoenix the favourite), goals in between.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).