Match details. Taca Fares Lopes. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
Form. Palmacia EC CE have won none, drawn one and lost five of their last six, 0.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L L. CF Atletas do Tirol CE have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D W.
The numbers. Palmacia EC CE score 0.8 and concede two a game over their last six, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Palmacia EC CE average 8.5 shots (3.8 on target), 3.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. CF Atletas do Tirol CE score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. CF Atletas do Tirol CE average 9.8 shots (2.4 on target), 4.4 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
The case against. Palmacia EC CE's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. CF Atletas do Tirol CE to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make CF Atletas do Tirol CE the likelier winners; CF Atletas do Tirol CE are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CF Atletas do Tirol CE. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Palmacia EC CE 1-2 CF Atletas do Tirol CE (10% chance).
The agreed story. CF Atletas do Tirol CE or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).