Match details. WE League, Women. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 06:00 Lagos time.
Form. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L W. Mynavi Sendai Ladies have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L D.
The numbers. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina score 1.4 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina average 11.7 shots (5.6 on target), 4.8 corners and 0.1 cards a game. Mynavi Sendai Ladies score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Mynavi Sendai Ladies average 12.7 shots (5.3 on target), 3.2 corners and 0.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The case against. Mynavi Sendai Ladies's record still gives them 43% to win.
The read. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina to win. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina 1-0 Mynavi Sendai Ladies (10% chance).
The agreed story. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina or the draw, goals in between.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).