Besa Kavaje vs KS Pogradeci
Match details. Kategoria e Pare, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 13:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Besa Kavaje are 3rd on 14 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Iliria Fushë-Krujë, level on points with Pogradeci. A win would take them above Iliria Fushë-Krujë. KS Pogradeci are 4th on 14 points after 8 games, level on points with Besa Kavajë, 2 points clear of Flamurtari. A win would take them above Besa Kavajë.
Form. Besa Kavaje have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W W. KS Pogradeci have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D W W.
The numbers. Besa Kavaje score 3.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Besa Kavaje average 13.6 shots (5.4 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.9 cards a game. KS Pogradeci score 1.4 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. KS Pogradeci average 11.2 shots (4.7 on target), 5.1 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Besa Kavaje have won two, drawn three and lost three. Two of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, two were drawn and KS Pogradeci won two. The last time they met, on 14 Mar 2026, it finished Besa Kavaje 2-3 KS Pogradeci.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 55%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%; six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%. Six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Besa Kavaje 1-1 KS Pogradeci (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).