Viking FK vs Sabah Masazir
Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at SR-Bank Arena, Stavanger. The referee is Sander van der Eijk.
What's at stake. Viking FK are 33rd on 1 point after 3 games, level on points with Slavia Praha, level on points with Lille. A win would take them above Slavia Praha. Sabah Masazir are 25th on 3 points after 3 games, level on points with Napoli, level on points with Lens. A win would take them above Napoli.
Team news. Viking FK are without A. Baertelsen (foot injury), V. Berisha (thigh injury), S. Bjorshol (knee injury), N. D'Agostino (leg injury), K. Frimpong (off the roster), M. Roseth (knee injury). Sabah Masazir are without V. Simic (injury), V. Simic (injury).
Form. Viking FK have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W D. Sabah Masazir have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W W.
The numbers. Viking FK score four and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Viking FK average 11.7 shots (5.5 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 39% of the ball. Sabah Masazir score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sabah Masazir average 10.7 shots (4.3 on target), 3.6 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 88%.
The case against. Sabah Masazir's record still gives them 25% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to a tight game.
The read. Viking FK to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Viking FK the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Viking FK. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 88%.
The bets. Best bet: Viking FK or Draw at 1.16, 75% on the records (Viking FK unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home; Sabah Masazir failed to win 3 of 5 away). Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Viking FK or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Viking FK 2-1 Sabah Masazir (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).