Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers

Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is Fri 6 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Pride Park Stadium, Derby.

What's at stake. Derby County are 23rd on 7 points after 14 games, 3 points behind Burnley, 2 points clear of Preston. A win would take them level on points with Burnley. Bolton Wanderers are 17th on 17 points after 14 games, level on points with Wrexham, 2 points clear of Cardiff. A win would take them above Wrexham.

Team news. Derby County are without P. Agyemang (achilles tendon injury), E. Cashin (inactive), M. Clarke (calf injury), C. Forsyth (knee injury), S. Langas (injury), D. Murkin (hamstring injury). Bolton Wanderers are without E. Erhahon (thigh injury), R. Hardie (hamstring injury), J. McAtee (knee injury), J. Nelson (inactive), E. Toal (inactive), G. Bazunu (inactive).

Form. Derby County have won none, drawn three and lost seven of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L L. Bolton Wanderers have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D W.

The numbers. Derby County score 0.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Derby County average 13.4 shots (4.1 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Bolton Wanderers score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Bolton Wanderers average 14.0 shots (4.6 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Derby County have won six, drawn two and lost two. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Derby County won two, one was drawn and Bolton Wanderers won one. The last time they met, on 16 Mar 2024, it finished Derby County 1-0 Bolton Wanderers: Derby County had 10 shots to 6, 44% of the ball, two yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. Bolton Wanderers are the form side, but the meetings favour Derby County: in the last ten meetings, Derby County won six, Bolton Wanderers won two and two were drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%; six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The read. No side to back. A draw is live. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.51, 73% on the records (Derby County: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Bolton Wanderers: under 3.5 goals in 2 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Derby County 1-1 Bolton Wanderers (13% chance).