Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 1 - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Bergantinos FC are 3rd on 17 points after 8 games, level on points with Deportivo Alavés II, level on points with Eibar II. A win would take them above Deportivo Alavés II. Ourense CF are 8th on 13 points after 8 games, level on points with Amorebieta, 1 point clear of Portugalete. A win would take them above Amorebieta.
Form. Bergantinos FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W. Ourense CF have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D W.
The numbers. Bergantinos FC score three and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Bergantinos FC average 14.2 shots (5.2 on target), 2.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Ourense CF score one and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and five games without a goal. Ourense CF average 9.1 shots (2.9 on target), 3.4 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Bergantinos FC have won one, drawn none and lost four. Two of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. In the last four, Bergantinos FC won one and Ourense CF won three. The last time they met, on 1 Oct 2025, it finished Bergantinos FC 0-2 Ourense CF.
Where it pulls both ways. Bergantinos FC are the form side, but the meetings favour Ourense CF: in the last five meetings, Bergantinos FC won one and Ourense CF won four. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Bergantinos FC 1-1 Ourense CF (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).