SDA Tordesillas vs CD Numancia
Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 5 - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. SDA Tordesillas are 10th on 9 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Gimnástica Segoviana, level on points with Atlético Paso. A win would take them above Gimnástica Segoviana. CD Numancia are 6th on 13 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Real Valladolid II, level on points with Salamanca UDS. A win would take them above Real Valladolid II.
Form. SDA Tordesillas have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W D W. CD Numancia have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D D D.
The numbers. SDA Tordesillas score 2.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. SDA Tordesillas average 9.0 shots (3.2 on target), 3.2 corners and 3.4 cards a game. CD Numancia score 0.8 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Numancia average 10.8 shots (5.2 on target), 4.2 corners and 3.5 cards a game.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: CD Numancia or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); CD Numancia or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SDA Tordesillas 1-1 CD Numancia (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).